Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-16

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-06) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-06 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-06)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-06) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 253 (220 – 281) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 49 (17 – -59)
Algeria 187 (158 – 209) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 85 (19 – -34)
Argentina 277 (244 – 314) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.7 – 19)
Armenia 145 (121 – 167) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (13 – -41)
Australia 20 (8 – 32) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.4) -600 (6.4 – -6)
Austria 54 (36 – 67) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (7.2 – -36)
Azerbaijan 99 (79 – 116) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 18 (8.6 – -750)
Bahrain 303 (267 – 334) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (9.5 – 30)
Bangladesh 1075 (906 – 1222) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 19)
Belarus 1067 (915 – 1186) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (16 – 63)
Belgium 433 (378 – 476) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 88 (26 – -60)
Benin 26 (10 – 37) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 26 (5.9 – -11)
Bolivia 192 (166 – 215) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (10 – 100)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 33 (19 – 45) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -30 (12 – -6.7)
Brazil 11206 (9823 – 12984) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 17)
Bulgaria 42 (25 – 57) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -51 (13 – -8.8)
Cameroon 111 (86 – 129) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9 (5.7 – 20)
Canada 1343 (1201 – 1496) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -47 (220 – -22)
Chad 28 (15 – 39) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 70 (7.6 – -9.4)
Chile 2126 (1790 – 2490) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (8.6 – 14)
China 10 (3 – 15) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 2) 7 (2.7 – -13)
Colombia 681 (579 – 781) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.5 – 19)
Cote dIvoire 67 (46 – 84) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (6.6 – -94)
Croatia 19 (6 – 31) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 12 (3.8 – -11)
Cuba 21 (9 – 30) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -25 (8.8 – -5.1)
Czechia 55 (37 – 68) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 64 (10 – -15)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 66 (46 – 83) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.4) 21 (7.9 – -36)
Denmark 97 (76 – 116) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -25 (70 – -10)
Djibouti 28 (13 – 40) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 6.8 (3.5 – 290)
Dominican Republic 336 (295 – 374) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 54 (20 – -74)
Ecuador 307 (267 – 343) Decreasing 0.6 (0.5 – 0.7) -4.8 (-6.5 – -3.8)
Egypt 443 (377 – 497) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 25 (15 – 95)
El Salvador 73 (56 – 91) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 18 (7.9 – -69)
Equatorial Guinea 34 (19 – 47) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 9.4 (4.1 – -32)
Estonia 12 (2 – 21) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.1) 7.7 (2.6 – -8.3)
Finland 69 (53 – 86) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -18 (77 – -8.3)
France 643 (557 – 745) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -13 (-27 – -8.6)
Gabon 94 (71 – 112) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.7 (5.4 – 22)
Germany 955 (819 – 1067) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 410 (37 – -43)
Ghana 299 (260 – 329) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 38 (15 – -69)
Greece 21 (8 – 32) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 14 (4.3 – -10)
Guatemala 110 (86 – 128) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.1 (4.9 – 13)
Guinea 86 (68 – 105) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 28 (9.7 – -30)
Guinea Bissau 56 (41 – 70) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 110 (11 – -14)
Honduras 104 (79 – 127) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -51 (25 – -13)
Hungary 39 (24 – 54) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -140 (10 – -9)
Iceland 429598 (0 – 402) Likely increasing 850.4 (0 – 9.6) -0.014 (0.29 – -1.4)
India 4167 (3697 – 4701) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (15 – 26)
Indonesia 536 (446 – 619) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 33)
Iran 1867 (1629 – 2120) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 20)
Iraq 96 (77 – 113) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 18 (8.4 – -120)
Ireland 245 (195 – 297) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 160 (17 – -20)
Israel 33 (21 – 44) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 1) -14 (32 – -5.7)
Italy 1166 (1031 – 1295) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -48 (170 – -21)
Japan 107 (85 – 131) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -15 (220 – -7.3)
Kazakhstan 157 (133 – 180) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -81 (31 – -17)
Kosovo 19 (7 – 28) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 2) 6.4 (2.9 – -31)
Kuwait 886 (747 – 1012) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.2 (6.9 – 10)
Kyrgyzstan 33 (19 – 46) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 23 (6.3 – -14)
Latvia 13 (2 – 22) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 14 (3.4 – -6.8)
Lebanon 23 (8 – 36) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 9.1 (3.8 – -25)
Lithuania 19 (8 – 30) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 2) 7.2 (3 – -18)
Luxembourg 14 (3 – 22) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 20 (3.8 – -6.2)
Malaysia 52 (35 – 66) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.2) -34 (17 – -8.6)
Maldives 52 (37 – 69) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 17 (6.8 – -33)
Mexico 2124 (1842 – 2408) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 22)
Moldova 148 (123 – 171) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 20 (10 – -1900)
Morocco 149 (121 – 170) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -66 (33 – -16)
Nepal 32 (17 – 45) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2.1) 5.1 (3 – 17)
Netherlands 278 (234 – 320) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -54 (52 – -17)
New Zealand 1686 (0 – 113) Likely increasing 10.5 (0.4 – 5.2) -0.72 (1.1 – -9.4)
Niger 20 (7 – 29) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 9.8 (3.7 – -16)
Nigeria 223 (193 – 252) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -96 (34 – -20)
North Macedonia 27 (14 – 39) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 12 (4.8 – -24)
Norway 31 (17 – 44) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -22 (15 – -6.4)
Oman 219 (186 – 251) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 9.1 (6.5 – 15)
Pakistan 1815 (1625 – 2021) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (14 – 25)
Palestine 259470 (0 – 517) Unsure 606.5 (0 – 7.6) 0.0027 (0.87 – -2.4)
Panama 179 (155 – 203) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -350 (25 – -22)
Paraguay 36 (20 – 50) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 6800 (9.5 – -9.3)
Peru 3698 (3160 – 4210) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 24 (16 – 45)
Philippines 272 (226 – 317) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 39 (15 – -70)
Poland 424 (357 – 490) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 19 (12 – 47)
Portugal 252 (212 – 288) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 810 (25 – -28)
Puerto Rico 59 (41 – 73) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -48 (17 – -10)
Qatar 1532 (1312 – 1745) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.5 – 13)
Romania 279 (233 – 314) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -81 (43 – -21)
Russia 12036 (10766 – 13228) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 29 (22 – 43)
Saudi Arabia 2144 (1875 – 2401) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (14 – 27)
Senegal 110 (86 – 131) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 19 (8.9 – -110)
Serbia 84 (63 – 102) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -21 (48 – -8.7)
Singapore 827 (723 – 931) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 25 (16 – 57)
Slovakia 12 (2 – 20) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 2) 12 (3.1 – -5.8)
Somalia 61 (42 – 78) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 24 (7.8 – -22)
South Africa 722 (611 – 824) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (8.3 – 15)
South Korea 32 (19 – 43) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 5.9 (3.4 – 20)
Spain 1121 (1021 – 1205) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 40 (22 – 160)
Sri Lanka 23 (9 – 35) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.5) 52 (5.9 – -7.4)
Sudan 152 (127 – 173) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7.6 – 36)
Sweden 648 (553 – 734) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (14 – 58)
Switzerland 53 (38 – 66) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -21 (30 – -7.7)
Thailand 29 (1 – 55) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 2.9) 4.7 (1.8 – -7)
Tunisia 14 (1 – 27) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2.1) 19 (2.8 – -4)
Turkey 1793 (1571 – 1987) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 1400 (46 – -48)
Ukraine 500 (438 – 566) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 55 (22 – -99)
United Arab Emirates 787 (675 – 893) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 26)
United Kingdom 4240 (3859 – 4652) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -81 (470 – -37)
United Republic of Tanzania 11 (2 – 19) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1) -7.1 (30 – -3.2)
United States of America 25929 (23132 – 29017) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 99 (37 – -120)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 59 (39 – 78) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 14 (6.2 – -48)
Zambia 87 (64 – 106) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2) 4.5 (3.3 – 7.3)